Resumen

Background: Dropout in higher education is a socio-educational phenomenon that has the scope to limit the benefits of education as well as to widen social disparities. For this reason, governments have implemented various public policies for its prevention and mitigation. However, in rural populations, such policies have proven to be ineffective. The aim of this paper is to simulate public policy scenarios for the treatment of school dropout in rural higher education in Colombia from a Dynamic Performance Management approach. Methodology: To achieve the aim, a parameterised simulation model was designed with data from Colombian state entities in rural higher education. Five simulations were carried out. The analysis of the results was carried out using descriptive statistics and comparison of means using the Wilcoxon Sign Rank statistic. Results: The adoption of such an approach based on simulations suggests that policies to expand the coverage of educational credits and financial support, as well as the addition of a family income subsidy, allow for a reduction in the number of dropouts. Conclusions: A dynamic, data-driven approach can be effective in preventing and mitigating dropout in these areas. It also highlights the importance of identifying the key factors contributing to dropout. The results also suggest that government policies can have a significant impact on school retention in rural areas.

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